2014 NFL Predictions

Forgot to post this before the season started (I wrote it a couple days before the opener) - based on some of these picks I don't think anyone will accuse me of cheating.

AFC East - New England

AFC North - Pittsburgh

AFC South - Indianapolis

AFC West - Denver

Wild Cards - Cincinnati, Buffalo

AFC Championship - Denver over Indianapolis

NFC East - Philadelphia

NFC North - Green Bay

NFC South - New Orleans

NFC West - Seattle

Wild Cards - San Francisco, Chicago

NFC Championship - Seattle over New Orleans

Super Bowl - Seattle 27 - Denver 14

Denver has tried to close the gap by improving their defense.  While the Broncos remain the class of the AFC, Seattle is still the gold standard for a complete roster.  I like them to be the first back to back champions since the Patriots in 2003-2004.

There Are No Winners in the Ray Rice Situation

It took a lot – but finally the right decision was made in the Ray Rice case.  Despite a ludicrously short two-game suspension after the first video of Rice dragging his then fiancée out of an elevator, the video of the actual knockout punch (which I refuse to watch – but has only been described as horrific) was the knockout blow to Rice’s Ravens and possibly NFL career.

It’s actually incredible that an investigation that was butchered in so many ways ended up with a justified result.  Not to drudge up old news, but the fact that Rice’s fiancée was at the hearing with Commissioner Goodell is a joke.  How can she possibly be expected to give an accurate account of what happened?  Of course her judgment and candidness is clouded by the potential for a suspension, not to mention the looming threat of Rice’s wrath.

If the Ravens saw this video before today and did nothing - shame on them.  But we likely will never know for sure what the video release timeline looked like for all parties (law enforcement, NFL, Ravens).  Maybe it is naïve to think that the NFL and/or the Ravens didn’t have the video until today.  Casinos are loaded with cameras (including every elevator), so it existed from the start – but that could have been locked away in a vault somewhere.  We may never actually know the extent or existence of a cover up.  

The way to look at it now, in my opinion, is it’s about time.  You want to make a stand against violence against women?  Rice should be thrown out of the league permanently.  An indefinite suspension is a nice start, but a lifetime ban would be more appropriate and send a final message to all players.  A person working a normal job would never keep their job in this spot - the fame and big business of the NFL made this situation that much worse.  Enough about how it was a one-time mistake.  No one is buying that, or should, for a minute.  It’s been written about, it’s been talked about, and finally the last piece of video evidence has sealed the deal – the Ravens did the right thing - because they had to.

Hoping the Best for the NFL's Worst of 2013

Check out my article on www.profootballguru.com on what last year's bottom dwellers need to do to move up the ranks:

http://profootballguru.com/articles/hoping-the-best-for-the-worst-of-2013

I'll See If I Can Love the Beautiful Game

Soccer fandom in the United States appears to be on the upswing in the past couple of years - and it has little to do with the men's national team or their World Cup efforts.  In Buffalo, we have multiple soccer bars that open up early on Saturdays for games being played in Europe's top leagues.  These local taverns provide a pretty cool atmosphere, as most of the fans there can be considered diehards - that or they like a good excuse to have a Guinness at 10am.  Still, this is a small undercurrent of true soccer aficionados.

The World Cup is different.  Of course, we were all rooting for the United States - but that alone doesn't mean people love soccer.  They more likely love the spectacle. Who watches the bobsled any time other than when the USA is in the Olympics? Exactly.  Two weeks ago I would have said with great certainty given my minimal soccer knowledge there is no chance the USA would advance in this edition of the "group of death."  I stand corrected.

Standing room only for the USA vs Belgium game

I also did not anticipate really wanting to learn more about the game.  Soccer detractors will say "nothing happens", "no one scores", "they just run back and forth and whine about injuries".  Well, as a fan of most major sports, I've got to say - none are perfect.  Each has its flaws from a viewing standpoint.  Baseball takes forever.  Football has too many long delays for replays. Basketball's last two minutes can last 30 with all the intentional fouling.  Hockey has nothing but lucky bounce goals in a lot of cases.  I'll continue watching them all.

During the round of 16 game against Belgium, I stood at a local bar next to some legitimately knowledgeable soccer fans.  Apparently, Team USA goalie Tim Howard, the sole reason they had any chance again Belgium, is not widely considered to be among the top five goalies in the game. However, these two self-identified Everton FC (of the English Premier League) fans, disagreed with that notion.  After watching the remainder of the game, and listening to Howard's emotional post game comments after he stood on his head in what may have been his last World Cup game (he's 35 and apparently his Team USA backup is also excellent), I decided to look further into Everton.  Everton is the smaller of the two teams in Liverpool.  They are generally considered likable because they aren't among the top tier of spenders and don't always win.   I can get behind that. And their nickname is the "Toffees." I like candy - good enough.

Buffalo was not happy about the Portugal tying goal.

So I've decided to test out being a true soccer fan.  With apologies to Ann Coulter, if this means I am joining America's state of "moral decay", so be it.  I'll jump aboard with Everton.  I'm not sure if it will stick - but I'll try.  After all, they've got this guy on the team.  If nothing else, maybe in 2018 I can share some soccer knowledge with a newbie at a bar.

So you want a new stadium....

It's looking more and more like part of the deal to keep the Buffalo Bills where they belong, is going to be a new stadium.  But where does the stadium belong?  By now, the list of options is quite public and has been scrutinized and speculated about ad nauseum.  The downtown Buffalo waterfront; Niagara Falls, NY; Niagara Falls, Ontario; Batavia; West Seneca; my back yard...  It seems like every piece of open space in Western New York and Southern Ontario (please God no) has been considered.  I don't understand the desire to mess with a good thing.

Any Buffalonian will tell you we have the best tailgating spot in the league. I've had friends who went to big time football colleges come up for games and say our scene is comparable.  During this seemingly never ending playoff drought, at least we have the 4+ hours before the game to grill, drink a few pops and play cornhole, KanJam etc.  I don't care if it's 20 degrees out, it's fun, and it's an experience.  For those who say the atmosphere is too rowdy, I beg to differ.  Sure there is general debauchery - but that's at every stadium in the league - and the Bills have done a good job in recent years of increasing security.  I can count on one hand the number of fights I saw at games last year.  The out of control "party" atmosphere is highly overrated.

Sometimes the grass is not greener on the other side of the field.  I went to all 16 Bills games last year which included 10 stadiums.  Granted, I'm most familiar with Ralph Wilson Stadium, which absolutely plays a role - but it was by far the easiest to get to and from.  The other stadiums with great tailgating and easy access all had one thing in common - they weren't downtown.  I've been to Cleveland, Detroit, Pittsburgh among other cities with downtown stadiums.  The tailgating scenes there are mediocre at best.  I doubt anyone from those areas would credit the new stadium for any sort of economic boom in those areas.  Once the game is over, downtown clears out - slowly. The bars and restaurants around these areas work because they have Major League Baseball too.  I can't imagine that putting a stadium in downtown Buffalo for 8 events a year would lead to a tremendous increase in establishments that remain open the other 357 days too. The math doesn't make sense. Not to mention, putting in this new monstrosity on the waterfront, for example, could negatively impact the progress that is already being made.  Don't upset the apple cart on the development of what has long been a stagnant area.

In the current location, I can stay for the entire game at the Ralph and be home (at worst) by halftime of the 4pm games. I'm home, on my couch by 5:30 while people in places like Foxboro and East Rutherford get to sit in traffic for another hour.  Who doesn't want that?  The highway is right there for people traveling east and west on the I-90.  It's a great spot.

Western New Yorkers are nervous the team will leave if we don't get a shiny new stadium.  I get it - I'm on edge too while waiting for this new unknown owner to say "this team STAYS!" while pounding the podium. The news today that Terry Pegula, with his new found $1.75B in gas money, is throwing his hat in the ring is great - but if anything it makes the need for an expensive stadium less necessary.  He won't need the money from personal seat licenses.  We don't need to keep up with the Jerry Joneses and the other NFL fat cats that most Buffalonians despise.  Let's just stick to our roots and what we know and keep the stadium in a spot that is proven to work.

The Marcell Dareus Dilemma

For the record - the closest I've ever come to meeting Marcell Dareus is when he sat at the table next to me at Tempo Restaurant in Buffalo a couple of years ago.  He finished his 24 ounce Mario Williams steak - I came in a close second.  Beyond that, all I can go on is what I've read.  I don't think he's a bad guy - I think he's a bad decision maker, which is a lot closer to being stupid than it is to bad, or as he put it just two weeks ago "trouble."

But where is the line drawn?  Having synthetic marijuana in your car while speeding on an Alabama road is more stupid than dangerous, while this alleged drag race in peak travel time is more the latter.  What if he had killed another driver? A pedestrian?  A kid on a bike? Then we are having a whole different conversation.  It's one thing to risk your own health and safety, it's a completely different one to risk public safety - as he did for anyone on Milestrip Road at 3pm on a Friday.

So where do the Bills go from here?  The idea of cutting Dareus seems rash.  He would be picked up off of waivers faster than a speeding Jaguar, and rightfully so.  When his head is right, Dareus produces on the football field.  He may not be living up to 3rd overall pick status, but he's in the conversation when discussing the top 10 defensive tackles in the league.  That's pretty good on a team that cannot afford to lose talent as they go for broke in 2014.  Maybe football production shouldn't impact the punishment, but in reality it does.

From a locker room standpoint, what sort of precedent does letting him off scott free - other than the looming Roger Goodell imposed punishment - set?  This offseason the Bills have signed or drafted multiple players with ample talent and checkered pasts.  Brandon Spikes got a below market rate one year deal because of his antics in New England.  Mike Williams cost the Bills a 6th round pick and by all accounts is on his last chance to stay out of trouble and just play.  They drafted gifted but troubled offensive tackle Seantrel Henderson in the 7th round and made it clear immediately to him and the public that his first mistake in a Bills uniform will be his last.  How can they coddle and rehab Dareus while saying that multiple other guys are one and done?  It comes back to that blurred line between bad and stupid.  Dareus has had a lot of problems in his personal life over the past two seasons, most notably the murder of his brother, and the trouble he's gotten into has coincided with that aftermath.  Before that, he was noted as a good teammate and a good guy.  Read his personal history, it's loaded with tragedy and challenges but he persevered and stayed straight all the way through college.  His behavior has changed in the past year or so.

The agreement between Dareus and Doug Marrone to stay away from the remaining OTA's makes sense. Stay away from the voluntary practices, figure out what is really going on, and come back when the team reconvenes. Hopefully he fixes his path and stays on the straight and narrow.  If not, someone could actually get hurt - and that's when the football aspect goes out the window for the Bills and the decision to cut ties with him becomes more clear.